Longwood Lancers vs. Old Dominion Monarchs

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Longwood Lancers (50%) · Longwood Lancers at 57¢ · $743 held · ended Nov 14

Longwood Lancers57¢Old Dominion Monarchs43¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Longwood Lancers

Consensus Traders

Longwood Lancers 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$742.9

Combined PnL

$57.89

Smart Money Entry

34.4¢ → 57¢

+66% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidLongwood Lancers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Longwood Lancers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Longwood Lancers57%

Old Dominion Monarchs43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Longwood Lancers4 traders

Total Value$164.34

Total Shares299

Combined PnL+$56.7

Old Dominion Monarchs4 traders

Total Value$117.75

Total Shares196

Combined PnL+$1.2

Longwood Lancers — 50%Old Dominion Monarchs — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Longwood Lancers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOld Dominion Monarchs 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Longwood Lancers 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Old Dominion Monarchsavg 50¢	$525	$365.85	+$0.58	52% 895-837 (1732)
└ Old Dominion Monarchs leg	Old Dominion Monarchsavg 50¢	$262.5	$223.13	-$39.38
└ Longwood Lancers leg	Longwood Lancersavg 50¢	$124.11	$142.73	+$39.96
NA NatoAlfista	Longwood Lancersavg 25¢	$49.4	$108.68	+$59.28	43% 190-253 (443)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Longwood Lancersavg 55.6¢	$168.4	$94.96	-$16.47	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
└ Longwood Lancers leg	Longwood Lancersavg 55.6¢	$69.24	$65.41	-$9.39
└ Old Dominion Monarchs leg	Old Dominion Monarchsavg 57.6¢	$35.82	$29.55	-$7.08
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Old Dominion Monarchsavg 58¢	$57.03	$55.56	-$1.48	48% 287-306 (593)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Old Dominion Monarchsavg 54.9¢	$32.99	$38.49	+$5.5	35% 163-305 (468)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Longwood Lancersavg 53¢	$34.18	$33.86	-$0.32	39% 587-913 (1500)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Old Dominion Monarchsavg 72¢	$25.71	$22.86	-$2.86	55% 522-427 (949)
PA Pan9X<$100	Longwood Lancersavg 56.2¢	$37.49	$20	-$2.61	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
RN1<$100	Longwood Lancersavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.8	+$0.35	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Old Dominion Monarchsavg 45¢	$0.82	$0.85	+$0.03	50% 2576-2535 (5111)

NotJumpARB<$100

Old Dominion Monarchs

Invested

$525

Value

$365.85

PnL

+$0.58

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

Both legs:

Old Dominion Monarchs$262.550¢-$39.38

Longwood Lancers$124.1150¢+$39.96

NatoAlfista

Longwood Lancers

Invested

$49.4

Value

$108.68

PnL

+$59.28

Record

43%

190-253 (443)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Longwood Lancers

Invested

$168.4

Value

$94.96

PnL

-$16.47

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

Both legs:

Longwood Lancers$69.2455.6¢-$9.39

Old Dominion Monarchs$35.8257.6¢-$7.08

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Old Dominion Monarchs

Invested

$57.03

Value

$55.56

PnL

-$1.48

Record

48%

287-306 (593)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Old Dominion Monarchs

Invested

$32.99

Value

$38.49

PnL

+$5.5

Record

35%

163-305 (468)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Longwood Lancers

Invested

$34.18

Value

$33.86

PnL

-$0.32

Record

39%

587-913 (1500)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Old Dominion Monarchs

Invested

$25.71

Value

$22.86

PnL

-$2.86

Record

55%

522-427 (949)

Pan9X<$100

Longwood Lancers

Invested

$37.49

Value

$20

PnL

-$2.61

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

RN1<$100

Longwood Lancers

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.35

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Old Dominion Monarchs

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

Research grade

AvoidLongwood Lancers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Longwood Lancers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Longwood Lancers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOld Dominion Monarchs 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Longwood Lancers 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Longwood Lancers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.