Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-21.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold La Salle Explorers (40%) · La Salle Explorers at 100¢ · $761 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
La Salle Explorers
5
La Salle Explorers 40%
$761.11
-$145.97
54¢ → 99.5¢
+84% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLa Salle Explorers at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on La Salle Explorers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL glennyorkshire | La Salle Explorersavg 54¢ | $473.68 | $447.37 | -$26.32 | 47% 35-40 (75) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Villanova Wildcatsavg 46¢ | $354.68 | $254.45 | -$100.24 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Villanova Wildcatsavg 46¢ | $69 | $49.5 | -$19.5 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Villanova Wildcatsavg 34.8¢ | $6.89 | $7.03 | +$0.14 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | La Salle Explorersavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.55 | -$0.05 | 26% 181-519 (700) |
Invested
$473.68
Value
$447.37
PnL
-$26.32
Record
47%
35-40 (75)
Invested
$354.68
Value
$254.45
PnL
-$100.24
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$69
Value
$49.5
PnL
-$19.5
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$6.89
Value
$7.03
PnL
+$0.14
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.05
Record
26%
181-519 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.