James Madison Dukes vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison Dukes (83%) · James Madison Dukes at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
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Avoid
James Madison Dukes
6
James Madison Dukes 83%
$1.1K
-$9.44
63.1¢ → 91.5¢
+45% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidJames Madison Dukes at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | James Madison Dukesavg 60.6¢ | $942.55 | $955.58 | +$13.03 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
 RN1 | James Madison Dukesavg 70¢ | $159.9 | $133.63 | -$26.27 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | James Madison Dukesavg 69.4¢ | $15.35 | $18.36 | +$3.01 | 49% 684-724 (1408) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | James Madison Dukesavg 67.9¢ | $16.36 | $17.58 | +$1.22 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
TH thirdt1me<$100 | James Madison Dukesavg 75¢ | $16.91 | $16.46 | -$0.45 | 43% 123-163 (286) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensavg 13¢ | $0.6 | $0.62 | +$0.02 | 53% 1841-1653 (3494) |
Invested
$942.55
Value
$955.58
PnL
+$13.03
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
RN1Invested
$159.9
Value
$133.63
PnL
-$26.27
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$15.35
Value
$18.36
PnL
+$3.01
Record
49%
684-724 (1408)
Invested
$16.36
Value
$17.58
PnL
+$1.22
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
Invested
$16.91
Value
$16.46
PnL
-$0.45
Record
43%
123-163 (286)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.62
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
1841-1653 (3494)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.