Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (97%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lindenwood Lions vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 151.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 3.0¢ · $632 held · ended Nov 12

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$631.57

Combined PnL

$10.57

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 3¢

-93% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$436.6

Total Shares793

Combined PnL-$18.71

Over2 traders

Total Value$194.97

Total Shares342

Combined PnL+$29.28

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 46¢	$373.43	$365.62	-$7.81	57% 3234-2442 (5676)
DD 0xdd5e...9040	Overavg 47¢	$156.04	$189.24	+$33.2	—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$79.33	$68.82	-$10.5	51% 505-476 (981)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 96¢	$9.65	$5.73	-$3.92	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.15	-$0.4	34% 332-644 (976)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$373.43

Value

$365.62

PnL

-$7.81

Record

57%

3234-2442 (5676)

0xdd5e...9040

Over

Invested

$156.04

Value

$189.24

PnL

+$33.2

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79.33

Value

$68.82

PnL

-$10.5

Record

51%

505-476 (981)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$9.65

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$3.92

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.4

Record

34%

332-644 (976)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.2%

3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2256.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

2356.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.