Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-4.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Creighton Bluejays (67%) · Creighton Bluejays at 81¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Creighton Bluejays
6
Creighton Bluejays 67%
$2.6K
$36.66
51.8¢ → 80.5¢
+55% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidCreighton Bluejays at 81%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Creighton Bluejays. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Creighton Bluejaysavg 53¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.65 | 49% 2881-2944 (5825) |
GA gagarin59CTR | Iowa Hawkeyesavg 47¢ | $998.4 | $987.77 | -$10.62 | 44% 100-128 (228) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Creighton Bluejaysavg 49¢ | $317.95 | $343.9 | +$25.95 | 56% 3926-3105 (7031) |
38 38791873984189 | Creighton Bluejaysavg 49¢ | $128.9 | $139.36 | +$10.46 | 48% 4016-4413 (8429) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Creighton Bluejaysavg 51¢ | $7.45 | $7.68 | +$0.23 | 43% 873-1152 (2025) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Iowa Hawkeyesavg 49¢ | $7.25 | $7.24 | -$0.01 | 50% 2214-2221 (4435) |
Invested
$1,128.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.65
Record
49%
2881-2944 (5825)
Invested
$998.4
Value
$987.77
PnL
-$10.62
Record
44%
100-128 (228)
Invested
$317.95
Value
$343.9
PnL
+$25.95
Record
56%
3926-3105 (7031)
Invested
$128.9
Value
$139.36
PnL
+$10.46
Record
48%
4016-4413 (8429)
Invested
$7.45
Value
$7.68
PnL
+$0.23
Record
43%
873-1152 (2025)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$7.24
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
2214-2221 (4435)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.