Iona Gaels vs. Hofstra Pride: O/U 136.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$2.74

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 56.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$956.94

Total Shares1,615

Combined PnL+$49.37

Over5 traders

Total Value$629.51

Total Shares1,464

Combined PnL-$46.63

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54¢	$877.07	$924.87	+$47.81	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$460.75	$429.14	-$31.61	53% 388-339 (727)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$450	$86	-$6	75% 112-37 (149)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 47.3¢	$71	$64.5	-$6.5	53% 1030-921 (1951)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$49.95	$47.73	-$2.22	33% 88-181 (269)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 52¢	$16.25	$17.81	+$1.56	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 57¢	$14.25	$14.25	-$0	55% 248-199 (447)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.15	-$0.3	40% 584-893 (1477)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$877.07

Value

$924.87

PnL

+$47.81

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$460.75

Value

$429.14

PnL

-$31.61

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$450

Value

$86

PnL

-$6

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71

Value

$64.5

PnL

-$6.5

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.95

Value

$47.73

PnL

-$2.22

Record

33%

88-181 (269)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$16.25

Value

$17.81

PnL

+$1.56

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$14.25

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.3

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.