Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Iona Gaels vs. Fordham Rams: O/U 139.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 50¢ · $986 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$986.11
$59.32
48.8¢ → 50¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51.7¢ | $379.02 | $491.71 | +$112.69 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 48.8¢ | $488.35 | $440 | -$48.35 | 55% 119-96 (215) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $25.14 | $27.65 | +$2.51 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $99.48 | $18.53 | -$6.9 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 47.7¢ | $7.15 | $6.6 | -$0.55 | 26% 180-518 (698) |
HI hi774c<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $1.7 | $1.63 | -$0.07 | 8% 37-422 (459) |
Invested
$379.02
Value
$491.71
PnL
+$112.69
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
0xheavy888Invested
$488.35
Value
$440
PnL
-$48.35
Record
55%
119-96 (215)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$25.14
Value
$27.65
PnL
+$2.51
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$99.48
Value
$18.53
PnL
-$6.9
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
Invested
$7.15
Value
$6.6
PnL
-$0.55
Record
26%
180-518 (698)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.63
PnL
-$0.07
Record
8%
37-422 (459)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.