Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Incarnate Word Cardinals, while the market favors UC Davis Aggies (63%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: UC Davis Aggies (-11.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Incarnate Word Cardinals (60%) · Incarnate Word Cardinals at 37¢ · $212 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Incarnate Word Cardinals
5
Incarnate Word Cardinals 60%
$212.06
-$14.61
Research grade
AvoidIncarnate Word Cardinals at 37%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors UC Davis Aggies 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | UC Davis Aggiesavg 49.5¢ | $67.77 | $70.56 | +$2.79 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
 RN1<$100 | UC Davis Aggiesavg 51¢ | $52.04 | $52.55 | +$0.51 | 57% 4034-3050 (7084) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Incarnate Word Cardinalsavg 48¢ | $48 | $48.5 | +$0.5 | 52% 463-433 (896) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Incarnate Word Cardinalsavg 48¢ | $56.47 | $38.03 | -$18.43 | 48% 1375-1500 (2875) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Incarnate Word Cardinalsavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.43 | +$0.02 | 32% 295-621 (916) |
Invested
$67.77
Value
$70.56
PnL
+$2.79
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
RN1<$100Invested
$52.04
Value
$52.55
PnL
+$0.51
Record
57%
4034-3050 (7084)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$48
Value
$48.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
52%
463-433 (896)
Invested
$56.47
Value
$38.03
PnL
-$18.43
Record
48%
1375-1500 (2875)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.43
PnL
+$0.02
Record
32%
295-621 (916)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.