Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. UC Davis Aggies

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UC Davis Aggies (83%) · UC Davis Aggies at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Incarnate Word Cardinals9¢UC Davis Aggies91¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

UC Davis Aggies

Consensus Traders

UC Davis Aggies 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$13.66

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 91.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUC Davis Aggies at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UC Davis Aggies

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Incarnate Word Cardinals9%

UC Davis Aggies92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UC Davis Aggies5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,159

Combined PnL+$14.33

Incarnate Word Cardinals1 trader

Total Value$10.03

Total Shares134

Combined PnL-$0.67

UC Davis Aggies — 83%Incarnate Word Cardinals — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	UC Davis Aggiesavg 92¢	$435.88	$438.25	+$2.37	50% 32-32 (64)
HO HomeRunHazard	UC Davis Aggiesavg 86¢	$389.58	$391.84	+$2.26	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
38 38791873984189	UC Davis Aggiesavg 89.6¢	$165	$173.83	+$8.83	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
RN1ARB<$100	UC Davis Aggiesavg 92¢	$119.74	$119.83	+$0.08	57% 4034-3050 (7084)
└ UC Davis Aggies leg	UC Davis Aggiesavg 92¢	$93.84	$93.33	-$0.51
└ Incarnate Word Cardinals leg	Incarnate Word Cardinalsavg 8.3¢	$25.9	$26.5	+$0.59
PA Pan9X<$100	UC Davis Aggiesavg 89.5¢	$39.48	$40.31	+$0.84	49% 673-714 (1387)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Incarnate Word Cardinalsavg 8¢	$10.7	$10.03	-$0.67	53% 1818-1628 (3446)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	UC Davis Aggiesavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.33	+$0.03	32% 295-621 (916)

pagliacci4

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$435.88

Value

$438.25

PnL

+$2.37

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

HomeRunHazard

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$389.58

Value

$391.84

PnL

+$2.26

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

38791873984189

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$165

Value

$173.83

PnL

+$8.83

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

RN1ARB<$100

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$119.74

Value

$119.83

PnL

+$0.08

Record

57%

4034-3050 (7084)

Both legs:

UC Davis Aggies$93.8492¢-$0.51

Incarnate Word Cardinals$25.98.3¢+$0.59

Pan9X<$100

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$39.48

Value

$40.31

PnL

+$0.84

Record

49%

673-714 (1387)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Incarnate Word Cardinals

Invested

$10.7

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$0.67

Record

53%

1818-1628 (3446)

ameisgoat11<$100

UC Davis Aggies

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

32%

295-621 (916)

Research grade

AvoidUC Davis Aggies at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UC Davis Aggies

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UC Davis Aggies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.