Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Texas Tech Red Raiders, while the market favors Illinois Fighting Illini (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech Red Raiders (67%) · Texas Tech Red Raiders at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Texas Tech Red Raiders
6
Texas Tech Red Raiders 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$11.01
44.7¢ → 43.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidTexas Tech Red Raiders at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Illinois Fighting Illini 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Texas Tech Red Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 54.9¢ | $337.92 | $348.04 | +$10.12 | 52% 92-86 (178) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 46¢ | $237.62 | $227.29 | -$10.33 | 57% 3010-2261 (5271) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 44¢ | $182.46 | $184.95 | +$2.49 | 46% 124-145 (269) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 43.6¢ | $219.75 | $168.09 | +$4.34 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
| └ Texas Tech Red Raiders leg | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 43.6¢ | $109.49 | $109.19 | -$0.31 | |
| └ Illinois Fighting Illini leg | Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 54¢ | $56.28 | $58.9 | +$4.65 | |
 0xheavy888CTR | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 44¢ | $146.52 | $146.52 | +$0 | 57% 70-52 (122) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100 | Illinois Fighting Illini | $75.04 | $75.04 | +$6.7 | 100% 71-0 (71) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 42¢ | $28.46 | $29.81 | +$2.03 | 12% 22-166 (188) |
nigiri99Invested
$337.92
Value
$348.04
PnL
+$10.12
Record
52%
92-86 (178)
Invested
$237.62
Value
$227.29
PnL
-$10.33
Record
57%
3010-2261 (5271)
Invested
$182.46
Value
$184.95
PnL
+$2.49
Record
46%
124-145 (269)
Invested
$219.75
Value
$168.09
PnL
+$4.34
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Both legs:
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$146.52
Value
$146.52
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
70-52 (122)
Invested
$75.04
Value
$75.04
PnL
+$6.7
Record
100%
71-0 (71)
Invested
$28.46
Value
$29.81
PnL
+$2.03
Record
12%
22-166 (188)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
nigiri99
Illinois Fighting Illini — $348.04
HomeRunHazard
CTRTexas Tech Red Raiders — $227.29
SnakeBall
CTRTexas Tech Red Raiders — $184.95
38791873984189
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xheavy888
CTRTexas Tech Red Raiders — $146.52
overtimemarkets.xyz-singles
Illinois Fighting Illini — $75.04
BoomLaLa
CTRTexas Tech Red Raiders — $29.81