High Point Panthers vs. Saint Louis Billikens

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Louis Billikens (67%) · Saint Louis Billikens at 74¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

High Point Panthers27¢Saint Louis Billikens73¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Saint Louis Billikens

Consensus Traders

Saint Louis Billikens 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$27.97

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 73.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSaint Louis Billikens at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Louis Billikens

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

High Point Panthers27%

Saint Louis Billikens74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saint Louis Billikens4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,776

Combined PnL+$39.48

High Point Panthers2 traders

Total Value$821.37

Total Shares3,051

Combined PnL-$67.45

Saint Louis Billikens — 67%High Point Panthers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Saint Louis Billikens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSaint Louis Billikens 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Saint Louis Billikens 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Saint Louis Billikensavg 71¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$38.78	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
FO Forecastication2CTR	High Point Panthersavg 28.8¢	$742.43	$671.32	-$71.11	44% 339-425 (764)
0xheavy888	Saint Louis Billikensavg 72.7¢	$378.17	$377.24	-$0.93	56% 679-534 (1213)
SN SnakeBall	Saint Louis Billikensavg 72¢	$222.65	$224.13	+$1.47	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Saint Louis Billikensavg 50¢	$3.6K	$198	-$2	64% 145-83 (228)
└ Saint Louis Billikens leg	Saint Louis Billikensavg 50¢	$100	$146	+$46
└ High Point Panthers leg	High Point Panthersavg 50¢	$100	$52	-$48
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	High Point Panthersavg 25.8¢	$146.39	$150.05	+$3.66	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
PA Pan9X<$100	Saint Louis Billikensavg 71¢	$7.84	$8	+$0.16	50% 2197-2203 (4400)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Saint Louis Billikens

Invested

$1,376.67

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$38.78

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Forecastication2CTR

High Point Panthers

Invested

$742.43

Value

$671.32

PnL

-$71.11

Record

44%

339-425 (764)

0xheavy888

Saint Louis Billikens

Invested

$378.17

Value

$377.24

PnL

-$0.93

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

SnakeBall

Saint Louis Billikens

Invested

$222.65

Value

$224.13

PnL

+$1.47

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Saint Louis Billikens

Invested

$3,598

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

64%

145-83 (228)

Both legs:

Saint Louis Billikens$10050¢+$46

High Point Panthers$10050¢-$48

HomeRunHazardCTR

High Point Panthers

Invested

$146.39

Value

$150.05

PnL

+$3.66

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Pan9X<$100

Saint Louis Billikens

Invested

$7.84

Value

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Research grade

AvoidSaint Louis Billikens at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Louis Billikens

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Saint Louis Billikens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSaint Louis Billikens 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Saint Louis Billikens 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saint Louis Billikens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.