Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Howard Bison, while the market favors Davidson Wildcats (57%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Howard Bison vs. Davidson Wildcats

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Howard Bison (55%) · Howard Bison at 43¢ · $202 held · ended Nov 15

Howard Bison43¢Davidson Wildcats57¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Howard Bison

Consensus Traders

Howard Bison 55%

Total Value

$202.45

Combined PnL

$2.81

Research grade

AvoidHoward Bison at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Howard Bison

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Davidson Wildcats 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Howard Bison43%

Davidson Wildcats57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Howard Bison6 traders

Total Value$88.07

Total Shares471

Combined PnL+$0.1

Davidson Wildcats5 traders

Total Value$114.38

Total Shares157

Combined PnL+$2.71

Howard Bison — 55%Davidson Wildcats — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Howard Bison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHoward Bison 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHoward Bison 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Howard Bison 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR<$100	Howard Bisonavg 16¢	$43.52	$44.88	+$1.36	52% 602-565 (1167)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 60¢	$39.18	$40.16	+$0.98	47% 985-1122 (2107)
0xheavy888<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 82¢	$36.44	$37.56	+$1.11	56% 541-433 (974)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100	Howard Bisonavg 17.9¢	$25.44	$23.46	-$1.98	46% 41-48 (89)
PA Pan9X<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 59.8¢	$16.89	$17.27	+$0.38	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
38 38791873984189<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 67¢	$13.6	$14.11	+$0.51	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
dips.CTR<$100	Howard Bisonavg 40¢	$9.58	$10.54	+$0.96	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Howard Bisonavg 38¢	$7.63	$7.13	-$0.5	48% 294-314 (608)
RN1<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 67¢	$5.55	$5.28	-$0.27	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
poshposhCTR<$100	Howard Bisonavg 12¢	$0.95	$1.26	+$0.32	49% 1233-1293 (2526)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Howard Bisonavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.8	-$0.05	41% 708-1019 (1727)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Howard Bison

Invested

$43.52

Value

$44.88

PnL

+$1.36

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

SnakeBall<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$39.18

Value

$40.16

PnL

+$0.98

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

0xheavy888<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$36.44

Value

$37.56

PnL

+$1.11

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100

Howard Bison

Invested

$25.44

Value

$23.46

PnL

-$1.98

Record

46%

41-48 (89)

Pan9X<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$16.89

Value

$17.27

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

38791873984189<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$13.6

Value

$14.11

PnL

+$0.51

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

dips.CTR<$100

Howard Bison

Invested

$9.58

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$0.96

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Howard Bison

Invested

$7.63

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

RN1<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$5.55

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$0.27

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

poshposhCTR<$100

Howard Bison

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.32

Record

49%

1233-1293 (2526)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Howard Bison

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

AvoidHoward Bison at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Howard Bison

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Davidson Wildcats 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Howard Bison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHoward Bison 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHoward Bison 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Howard Bison 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Howard Bison wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.