Hofstra Pride vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Arizona State Sun Devils (25%) · Arizona State Sun Devils at 95¢ · $571 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Arizona State Sun Devils
4
Arizona State Sun Devils 25%
1 arb excluded
$571.01
-$5.49
Research grade
AvoidArizona State Sun Devils at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Arizona State Sun Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Arizona State Sun Devilsavg 95¢ | $427.5 | $423 | -$4.5 | 52% 128-120 (248) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Arizona State Sun Devilsavg 94¢ | $154 | $143.93 | -$10.07 | 48% 190-206 (396) |
| └ Arizona State Sun Devils leg | Arizona State Sun Devilsavg 94¢ | $114.76 | $114.76 | +$0 | |
| └ Hofstra Pride leg | Hofstra Prideavg 5.4¢ | $39.25 | $29.18 | -$10.07 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Hofstra Prideavg 5¢ | $3.43 | $2.74 | -$0.69 | 41% 113-161 (274) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Hofstra Prideavg 5¢ | $1.59 | $1.27 | -$0.32 | 8% 37-422 (459) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Hofstra Prideavg 4¢ | $0.05 | $0.06 | +$0.01 | 11% 24-189 (213) |
nigiri99Invested
$427.5
Value
$423
PnL
-$4.5
Record
52%
128-120 (248)
Invested
$154
Value
$143.93
PnL
-$10.07
Record
48%
190-206 (396)
Both legs:
Invested
$3.43
Value
$2.74
PnL
-$0.69
Record
41%
113-161 (274)
Invested
$1.59
Value
$1.27
PnL
-$0.32
Record
8%
37-422 (459)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$0.01
Record
11%
24-189 (213)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.