Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Northeastern Huskies, while the market favors Harvard Crimson (54%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Harvard Crimson vs. Northeastern Huskies

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Northeastern Huskies (71%) · Northeastern Huskies at 47¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 11

Harvard Crimson54¢Northeastern Huskies46¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Northeastern Huskies

Consensus Traders

Northeastern Huskies 71%

Total Value

$245.36

Combined PnL

$12.04

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 46.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNortheastern Huskies at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Northeastern Huskies

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Harvard Crimson 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Harvard Crimson54%

Northeastern Huskies47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Northeastern Huskies5 traders

Total Value$214.33

Total Shares466

Combined PnL+$12.21

Harvard Crimson2 traders

Total Value$31.03

Total Shares58

Combined PnL-$0.17

Northeastern Huskies — 71%Harvard Crimson — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Northeastern Huskies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperHarvard Crimson 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNortheastern Huskies 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Northeastern Huskies 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Northeastern Huskiesavg 43.8¢	$116.65	$122.48	+$5.83	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Northeastern Huskiesavg 42.9¢	$68.65	$73.55	+$4.9	25% 212-653 (865)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Harvard Crimsonavg 54¢	$24.84	$24.61	-$0.23	47% 148-167 (315)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Northeastern Huskiesavg 41¢	$10.08	$11.31	+$1.23	25% 214-632 (846)
IM imjustkenisghey<$100	Harvard Crimsonavg 53¢	$6.36	$6.42	+$0.06	— 3-6 (9)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Northeastern Huskiesavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.65	+$0.05	52% 125-115 (240)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Northeastern Huskiesavg 42¢	$2.14	$2.34	+$0.2	25% 213-642 (855)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Northeastern Huskies

Invested

$116.65

Value

$122.48

PnL

+$5.83

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

VenusianCTR<$100

Northeastern Huskies

Invested

$68.65

Value

$73.55

PnL

+$4.9

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

SnakeBall<$100

Harvard Crimson

Invested

$24.84

Value

$24.61

PnL

-$0.23

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Northeastern Huskies

Invested

$10.08

Value

$11.31

PnL

+$1.23

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

imjustkenisghey<$100

Harvard Crimson

Invested

$6.36

Value

$6.42

PnL

+$0.06

Record

—

3-6 (9)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Northeastern Huskies

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

125-115 (240)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Northeastern Huskies

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0.2

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

Research grade

AvoidNortheastern Huskies at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Northeastern Huskies

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Harvard Crimson 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Northeastern Huskies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperHarvard Crimson 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNortheastern Huskies 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Northeastern Huskies 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Northeastern Huskies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.