Harvard Crimson vs. American Eagles

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Harvard Crimson (43%) · Harvard Crimson at 67¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Harvard Crimson67¢American Eagles33¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Harvard Crimson

Consensus Traders

Harvard Crimson 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$20.08

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 66.5¢

+29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidHarvard Crimson at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Harvard Crimson

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Harvard Crimson67%

American Eagles34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Harvard Crimson3 traders

Total Value$792.61

Total Shares1,164

Combined PnL+$79.59

American Eagles4 traders

Total Value$310.59

Total Shares756

Combined PnL-$99.66

Harvard Crimson — 43%American Eagles — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Harvard Crimsonavg 51.6¢	$693.32	$755.3	+$74.35	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Harvard Crimsonavg 50¢	$525	$524.41	+$0.01	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ Harvard Crimson leg	Harvard Crimsonavg 50¢	$262.5	$364.88	+$102.38
└ American Eagles leg	American Eaglesavg 50¢	$261.54	$159.54	-$102.37
RN1ARB<$100	American Eaglesavg 50¢	$394.87	$288.57	-$106.3	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
└ American Eagles leg	American Eaglesavg 50¢	$326.03	$198.91	-$127.12
└ Harvard Crimson leg	Harvard Crimsonavg 53.4¢	$68.84	$89.66	+$20.82
TH thirdt1meCTR	American Eaglesavg 52.6¢	$232.63	$199.06	-$33.57	47% 376-418 (794)
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100	American Eaglesavg 50.9¢	$149.07	$136	-$13.07	83% 991-206 (1197)
└ Harvard Crimson leg	Harvard Crimsonavg 56.3¢	$67.6	$72	+$4.4
└ American Eagles leg	American Eaglesavg 50.9¢	$81.47	$64	-$17.47
38 38791873984189CTR	American Eaglesavg 56¢	$146.2	$81.58	-$61.41	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Harvard Crimsonavg 52¢	$30.78	$35.54	+$4.75	55% 787-651 (1438)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	American Eaglesavg 52.6¢	$31.59	$27.04	-$4.55	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	American Eaglesavg 46¢	$3.04	$2.91	-$0.13	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Harvard Crimsonavg 48¢	$1.29	$1.78	+$0.48	56% 3922-3103 (7025)

takeormake

Harvard Crimson

Invested

$693.32

Value

$755.3

PnL

+$74.35

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

NotJumpARB<$100

Harvard Crimson

Invested

$525

Value

$524.41

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

Harvard Crimson$262.550¢+$102.38

American Eagles$261.5450¢-$102.37

RN1ARB<$100

American Eagles

Invested

$394.87

Value

$288.57

PnL

-$106.3

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Both legs:

American Eagles$326.0350¢-$127.12

Harvard Crimson$68.8453.4¢+$20.82

thirdt1meCTR

American Eagles

Invested

$232.63

Value

$199.06

PnL

-$33.57

Record

47%

376-418 (794)

ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100

American Eagles

Invested

$149.07

Value

$136

PnL

-$13.07

Record

83%

991-206 (1197)

Both legs:

Harvard Crimson$67.656.3¢+$4.4

American Eagles$81.4750.9¢-$17.47

38791873984189CTR

American Eagles

Invested

$146.2

Value

$81.58

PnL

-$61.41

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

averagejoetraders<$100

Harvard Crimson

Invested

$30.78

Value

$35.54

PnL

+$4.75

Record

55%

787-651 (1438)

Pan9XCTR<$100

American Eagles

Invested

$31.59

Value

$27.04

PnL

-$4.55

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

American Eagles

Invested

$3.04

Value

$2.91

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Harvard Crimson

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.48

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Research grade

AvoidHarvard Crimson at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Harvard Crimson

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Harvard Crimson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.