Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Holy Cross Crusaders, while the market favors Furman Paladins (98%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Furman Paladins vs. Holy Cross Crusaders

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Holy Cross Crusaders (71%) · Holy Cross Crusaders at 2.1¢ · $84 held · ended Nov 12

Furman Paladins98¢Holy Cross Crusaders2¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Holy Cross Crusaders

Consensus Traders

Holy Cross Crusaders 71%

Total Value

$83.7

Combined PnL

-$5.85

Research grade

AvoidHoly Cross Crusaders at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Holy Cross Crusaders

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Furman Paladins 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Furman Paladins98%

Holy Cross Crusaders2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Furman Paladins2 traders

Total Value$80.87

Total Shares81

Combined PnL+$4.59

Holy Cross Crusaders5 traders

Total Value$2.83

Total Shares109

Combined PnL-$10.44

Furman Paladins — 29%Holy Cross Crusaders — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Holy Cross Crusaders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFurman Paladins 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedHoly Cross Crusaders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Holy Cross Crusaders 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888<$100	Furman Paladinsavg 88¢	$61.75	$68.66	+$6.91	55% 205-165 (370)
FO forecastication4<$100	Furman Paladinsavg 86¢	$14.53	$12.21	-$2.33	19% 50-220 (270)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 12.4¢	$10.67	$1.85	-$8.82	31% 410-897 (1307)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 13¢	$1.42	$0.55	-$0.87	49% 692-733 (1425)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 12.6¢	$0.81	$0.32	-$0.49	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 5¢	$0.15	$0.07	-$0.09	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
RN1CTR<$100	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 10¢	$0.22	$0.05	-$0.17	57% 4059-3077 (7136)

0xheavy888<$100

Furman Paladins

Invested

$61.75

Value

$68.66

PnL

+$6.91

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

forecastication4<$100

Furman Paladins

Invested

$14.53

Value

$12.21

PnL

-$2.33

Record

19%

50-220 (270)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$10.67

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$8.82

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0.87

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.49

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

RN1CTR<$100

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.17

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

Research grade

AvoidHoly Cross Crusaders at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Holy Cross Crusaders

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Furman Paladins 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Holy Cross Crusaders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFurman Paladins 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedHoly Cross Crusaders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Holy Cross Crusaders 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Holy Cross Crusaders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.3%

2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2927.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

3028.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.