Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Gators (80%) · Florida Gators at 81¢ · $854 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Florida Gators
5
Florida Gators 80%
$854.33
$3.94
80.1¢ → 80.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidFlorida Gators at 81%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Florida Gators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Florida Gatorsavg 80¢ | $583.2 | $586.85 | +$3.64 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189 | Florida Gatorsavg 80.4¢ | $139.13 | $138.4 | -$0.73 | 48% 859-937 (1796) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Florida Gatorsavg 80¢ | $80 | $80 | +$0 | 49% 231-239 (470) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Florida Gatorsavg 80.4¢ | $27.33 | $27.2 | -$0.13 | 48% 421-450 (871) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Florida State Seminolesavg 18¢ | $20.73 | $21.89 | +$1.15 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
Invested
$583.2
Value
$586.85
PnL
+$3.64
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$139.13
Value
$138.4
PnL
-$0.73
Record
48%
859-937 (1796)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$80
Value
$80
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
231-239 (470)
Invested
$27.33
Value
$27.2
PnL
-$0.13
Record
48%
421-450 (871)
Invested
$20.73
Value
$21.89
PnL
+$1.15
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.