Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs. East Texas A&M Lions

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold East Texas A&M Lions (29%) · East Texas A&M Lions at 95¢ · $426 held · ended Nov 11

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights6¢East Texas A&M Lions94¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

East Texas A&M Lions

Consensus Traders

East Texas A&M Lions 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$425.95

Combined PnL

-$23.3

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 94.5¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidEast Texas A&M Lions at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

East Texas A&M Lions

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights6%

East Texas A&M Lions95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

East Texas A&M Lions2 traders

Total Value$138.15

Total Shares136

Combined PnL-$0.87

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights5 traders

Total Value$81.32

Total Shares1,162

Combined PnL-$22.43

East Texas A&M Lions — 29%Fairleigh Dickinson Knights — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-71 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on East Texas A&M Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFairleigh Dickinson Knights 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedFairleigh Dickinson Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Fairleigh Dickinson Knights 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Fairleigh Dickinson Knightsavg 14.5¢	$266.16	$206.48	-$59.68	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
└ East Texas A&M Lions leg	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 85.8¢	$129.76	$140.58	+$10.82
└ Fairleigh Dickinson Knights leg	Fairleigh Dickinson Knightsavg 14.5¢	$136.4	$65.9	-$70.5
38 38791873984189	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 84.5¢	$122.67	$122.52	-$0.15	48% 1352-1466 (2818)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Fairleigh Dickinson Knightsavg 14¢	$70.11	$35.05	-$35.05	53% 5689-5114 (10803)
RN1CTR<$100	Fairleigh Dickinson Knightsavg 4.4¢	$17.29	$27.5	+$10.21	57% 4029-3048 (7077)
PA Pan9X<$100	East Texas A&M Lionsavg 85¢	$16.35	$15.63	-$0.72	48% 667-712 (1379)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Fairleigh Dickinson Knightsavg 4.7¢	$9.56	$14.28	+$4.72	53% 1811-1620 (3431)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Fairleigh Dickinson Knightsavg 14¢	$4.61	$2.3	-$2.3	45% 263-319 (582)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Fairleigh Dickinson Knightsavg 7¢	$2.18	$2.18	+$0	42% 111-156 (267)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Invested

$266.16

Value

$206.48

PnL

-$59.68

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

Both legs:

East Texas A&M Lions$129.7685.8¢+$10.82

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights$136.414.5¢-$70.5

38791873984189

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$122.67

Value

$122.52

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

1352-1466 (2818)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Invested

$70.11

Value

$35.05

PnL

-$35.05

Record

53%

5689-5114 (10803)

RN1CTR<$100

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Invested

$17.29

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$10.21

Record

57%

4029-3048 (7077)

Pan9X<$100

East Texas A&M Lions

Invested

$16.35

Value

$15.63

PnL

-$0.72

Record

48%

667-712 (1379)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Invested

$9.56

Value

$14.28

PnL

+$4.72

Record

53%

1811-1620 (3431)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Invested

$4.61

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$2.3

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

111-156 (267)

Research grade

AvoidEast Texas A&M Lions at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

East Texas A&M Lions

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-71 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on East Texas A&M Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFairleigh Dickinson Knights 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedFairleigh Dickinson Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Fairleigh Dickinson Knights 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that East Texas A&M Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.