Elon Phoenix vs. George Washington Revolutionaries
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold George Washington Revolutionaries (60%) · George Washington Revolutionaries at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
George Washington Revolutionaries
5
George Washington Revolutionaries 60%
$1.1K
-$2.75
91¢ → 90.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidGeorge Washington Revolutionaries at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on George Washington Revolutionaries. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | George Washington Revolutionariesavg 91¢ | $962.85 | $937.24 | -$4.69 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Elon Phoenixavg 9¢ | $139.81 | $139.81 | -$0 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | George Washington Revolutionariesavg 90¢ | $45 | $45.5 | +$0.5 | 55% 106-86 (192) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | George Washington Revolutionariesavg 91¢ | $4.55 | $4.55 | +$0 | 24% 157-504 (661) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Elon Phoenixavg 6¢ | $2.88 | $4.32 | +$1.44 | 11% 24-188 (212) |
Invested
$962.85
Value
$937.24
PnL
-$4.69
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$139.81
Value
$139.81
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$45
Value
$45.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
55%
106-86 (192)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
157-504 (661)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$4.32
PnL
+$1.44
Record
11%
24-188 (212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.