Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Eastern Kentucky Colonels, while the market favors Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (93%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Eastern Kentucky Colonels (80%) · Eastern Kentucky Colonels at 7.5¢ · $41 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
5
Eastern Kentucky Colonels 80%
$41.05
$2.61
Research grade
AvoidEastern Kentucky Colonels at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Eastern Kentucky Colonelsavg 6¢ | $19.13 | $20.73 | +$1.59 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Eastern Kentucky Colonelsavg 6¢ | $13.38 | $14.41 | +$1.03 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jacketsavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $4.68 | +$0.08 | 25% 171-513 (684) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Eastern Kentucky Colonelsavg 7¢ | $1.26 | $1.17 | -$0.09 | 26% 230-647 (877) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Eastern Kentucky Colonelsavg 7¢ | $0.08 | $0.07 | -$0.01 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
Invested
$19.13
Value
$20.73
PnL
+$1.59
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$13.38
Value
$14.41
PnL
+$1.03
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.68
PnL
+$0.08
Record
25%
171-513 (684)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$0.09
Record
26%
230-647 (877)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.01
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.