Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Colgate Raiders vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens: O/U 147.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (89%) · Over at 44¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$59.08

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 44¢

-7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,733

Combined PnL-$56.66

Under1 trader

Total Value$264.16

Total Shares513

Combined PnL-$2.43

Over — 89%Under — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$63.04	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$352.5	$356.25	+$3.75	56% 668-530 (1198)
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603	Underavg 52¢	$266.59	$264.16	-$2.43	51% 22-21 (43)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.4K	$194.65	+$0.05	64% 145-83 (228)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$95	$101.65	+$7.05
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$93	-$7
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47¢	$215.24	$190.84	+$2.6	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$59.69	$59.69	+$0	40% 153-230 (383)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$50.29	$50.29	+$0	52% 419-387 (806)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$47	$47	+$0	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.43	+$0.02	43% 861-1147 (2008)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$1.12	$1.13	+$0.01	39% 234-370 (604)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$3,011.41

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$63.04

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$352.5

Value

$356.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603

Under

Invested

$266.59

Value

$264.16

PnL

-$2.43

Record

51%

22-21 (43)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,400

Value

$194.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

64%

145-83 (228)

Both legs:

Invested

$215.24

Value

$190.84

PnL

+$2.6

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.69

Value

$59.69

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

153-230 (383)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.29

Value

$50.29

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

419-387 (806)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47

Value

$47

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.02

Record

43%

861-1147 (2008)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.01

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.