Colgate Raiders vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Colgate Raiders (50%) · Colgate Raiders at 74¢ · $331 held · ended Nov 15

Colgate Raiders74¢Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens26¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Colgate Raiders

Consensus Traders

Colgate Raiders 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$330.92

Combined PnL

$4.36

Research grade

AvoidColgate Raiders at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colgate Raiders

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Colgate Raiders74%

Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colgate Raiders5 traders

Total Value$95.4

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$11.21

Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens5 traders

Total Value$88.33

Total Shares144

Combined PnL-$6.85

Colgate Raiders — 50%Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 48¢	$126.9	$147.18	+$20.28	41% 744-1054 (1798)
└ Colgate Raiders leg	Colgate Raidersavg 48¢	$87	$109.66	+$22.66
└ Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens leg	Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensavg 42¢	$39.9	$37.53	-$2.38
RN1<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 76¢	$56.65	$50.39	-$6.26	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensavg 53.2¢	$55.63	$40.62	-$15.01	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 28¢	$8.4	$22.5	+$14.1	66% 786-413 (1199)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensavg 61¢	$19.93	$19.93	-$0	47% 376-418 (794)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensavg 51¢	$10.2	$14.4	+$4.2	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
SM smithagent<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 28¢	$4.59	$10.58	+$5.99	46% 888-1048 (1936)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 61¢	$11.89	$10.35	-$1.54	39% 234-370 (604)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensavg 50¢	$6	$8.64	+$2.64	36% 204-361 (565)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensavg 52¢	$3.43	$4.75	+$1.32	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 47¢	$2.66	$1.58	-$1.08	56% 3922-3103 (7025)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$126.9

Value

$147.18

PnL

+$20.28

Record

41%

744-1054 (1798)

Both legs:

Colgate Raiders$8748¢+$22.66

Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens$39.942¢-$2.38

RN1<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$56.65

Value

$50.39

PnL

-$6.26

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens

Invested

$55.63

Value

$40.62

PnL

-$15.01

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

suitcase6628<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$8.4

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$14.1

Record

66%

786-413 (1199)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens

Invested

$19.93

Value

$19.93

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

376-418 (794)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens

Invested

$10.2

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$4.2

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

smithagent<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$4.59

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$5.99

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

BoomLaLa<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$11.89

Value

$10.35

PnL

-$1.54

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens

Invested

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$2.64

Record

36%

204-361 (565)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens

Invested

$3.43

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$1.32

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$2.66

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$1.08

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Research grade

AvoidColgate Raiders at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colgate Raiders

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colgate Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.