Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Colorado Buffaloes, while the market favors Providence Friars (57%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Providence Friars (-11.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado Buffaloes (40%) · Colorado Buffaloes at 43¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Colorado Buffaloes
5
Colorado Buffaloes 40%
$2.7K
$1.03
51.1¢ → 42.5¢
-17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidColorado Buffaloes at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Providence Friars 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Colorado Buffaloes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Colorado Buffaloesavg 51.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$6.71 | 50% 2600-2575 (5175) |
HI hi774c | Providence Friarsavg 49¢ | $978.64 | $968.65 | -$9.99 | 23% 187-633 (820) |
38 38791873984189 | Providence Friarsavg 48.3¢ | $175.86 | $176.54 | +$0.68 | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Colorado Buffaloesavg 47.1¢ | $45.89 | $50.21 | +$4.32 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Providence Friarsavg 50¢ | $23 | $22.31 | -$0.69 | 45% 277-332 (609) |
Invested
$1,497.36
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$6.71
Record
50%
2600-2575 (5175)
Invested
$978.64
Value
$968.65
PnL
-$9.99
Record
23%
187-633 (820)
Invested
$175.86
Value
$176.54
PnL
+$0.68
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
Invested
$45.89
Value
$50.21
PnL
+$4.32
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
Invested
$23
Value
$22.31
PnL
-$0.69
Record
45%
277-332 (609)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.