Cleveland State Vikings vs. Bowling Green Falcons

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bowling Green Falcons (57%) · Bowling Green Falcons at 89¢ · $964 held · ends Nov 10

Cleveland State Vikings11¢Bowling Green Falcons89¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bowling Green Falcons

Consensus Traders

Bowling Green Falcons 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$964.31

Combined PnL

$7.29

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 89¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBowling Green Falcons at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green Falcons

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cleveland State Vikings11%

Bowling Green Falcons89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bowling Green Falcons4 traders

Total Value$718.54

Total Shares806

Combined PnL+$0.2

Cleveland State Vikings3 traders

Total Value$156.07

Total Shares1,419

Combined PnL+$7.09

Bowling Green Falcons — 57%Cleveland State Vikings — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBowling Green Falcons 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Bowling Green Falcons 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Bowling Green Falconsavg 89¢	$689.75	$689.75	+$0	43% 26-34 (60)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Cleveland State Vikingsavg 11¢	$121.68	$127.47	+$5.79	46% 38-45 (83)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Cleveland State Vikingsavg 11¢	$86.69	$89.7	+$3.01	31% 29-66 (95)
└ Cleveland State Vikings leg	Cleveland State Vikingsavg 11¢	$62.92	$62.92	+$2.86
└ Bowling Green Falcons leg	Bowling Green Falconsavg 88¢	$26.47	$26.78	+$0.15
FO forecastication4<$100	Bowling Green Falconsavg 88¢	$18.59	$18.69	+$0.11	5% 4-79 (83)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Cleveland State Vikingsavg 11¢	$13.65	$14.3	+$0.65	24% 83-258 (341)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Cleveland State Vikingsavg 11¢	$13.65	$14.3	+$0.65	24% 86-278 (364)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bowling Green Falconsavg 88¢	$11.76	$5.65	+$0.12	47% 166-184 (350)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bowling Green Falconsavg 89¢	$4.48	$4.45	-$0.03	17% 38-183 (221)

nigiri99

Bowling Green Falcons

Invested

$689.75

Value

$689.75

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

26-34 (60)

SnakeBallCTR

Cleveland State Vikings

Invested

$121.68

Value

$127.47

PnL

+$5.79

Record

46%

38-45 (83)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Cleveland State Vikings

Invested

$86.69

Value

$89.7

PnL

+$3.01

Record

31%

29-66 (95)

Both legs:

Cleveland State Vikings$62.9211¢+$2.86

Bowling Green Falcons$26.4788¢+$0.15

forecastication4<$100

Bowling Green Falcons

Invested

$18.59

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$0.11

Record

4-79 (83)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Cleveland State Vikings

Invested

$13.65

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$0.65

Record

24%

83-258 (341)

LimousinCTR<$100

Cleveland State Vikings

Invested

$13.65

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$0.65

Record

24%

86-278 (364)

Pan9X<$100

Bowling Green Falcons

Invested

$11.76

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$0.12

Record

47%

166-184 (350)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bowling Green Falcons

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.03

Record

17%

38-183 (221)

Research grade

AvoidBowling Green Falcons at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green Falcons

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBowling Green Falcons 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Bowling Green Falcons 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bowling Green Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.