The Citadel Bulldogs vs. North Florida Ospreys

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold North Florida Ospreys (88%) · North Florida Ospreys at 85¢ · $953 held · ended Nov 14

The Citadel Bulldogs16¢North Florida Ospreys84¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

North Florida Ospreys

Consensus Traders

North Florida Ospreys 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$953.06

Combined PnL

$80.21

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 84.5¢

+65% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorth Florida Ospreys at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Florida Ospreys

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

The Citadel Bulldogs16%

North Florida Ospreys85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Florida Ospreys7 traders

Total Value$439.15

Total Shares670

Combined PnL+$96.46

The Citadel Bulldogs1 trader

Total Value$7.25

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$16.25

North Florida Ospreys — 88%The Citadel Bulldogs — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	North Florida Ospreysavg 50¢	$525	$506.67	+$1.64	52% 852-801 (1653)
└ North Florida Ospreys leg	North Florida Ospreysavg 50¢	$262.5	$354.38	+$91.88
└ The Citadel Bulldogs leg	The Citadel Bulldogsavg 50¢	$234.29	$152.29	-$90.24
BO BoomLaLa	North Florida Ospreysavg 50.7¢	$155.44	$233.5	+$81.81	35% 162-305 (467)
RN1	North Florida Ospreysavg 52.7¢	$131.96	$133.85	+$1.89	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
dips.<$100	North Florida Ospreysavg 44¢	$21.56	$24.99	+$3.43	47% 993-1122 (2115)
0xheavy888<$100	North Florida Ospreysavg 61¢	$18.99	$24.75	+$5.76	54% 503-422 (925)
SU suitcase6628<$100	North Florida Ospreysavg 46¢	$13.8	$16.2	+$2.4	64% 628-348 (976)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	The Citadel Bulldogsavg 47¢	$23.5	$7.25	-$16.25	56% 760-609 (1369)
PA Pan9X<$100	North Florida Ospreysavg 62¢	$3.31	$4.25	+$0.93	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
SM smithagent<$100	North Florida Ospreysavg 46¢	$1.38	$1.62	+$0.24	45% 679-837 (1516)

NotJumpARB<$100

North Florida Ospreys

Invested

$525

Value

$506.67

PnL

+$1.64

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

Both legs:

North Florida Ospreys$262.550¢+$91.88

The Citadel Bulldogs$234.2950¢-$90.24

BoomLaLa

North Florida Ospreys

Invested

$155.44

Value

$233.5

PnL

+$81.81

Record

35%

162-305 (467)

RN1

North Florida Ospreys

Invested

$131.96

Value

$133.85

PnL

+$1.89

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

dips.<$100

North Florida Ospreys

Invested

$21.56

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$3.43

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

0xheavy888<$100

North Florida Ospreys

Invested

$18.99

Value

$24.75

PnL

+$5.76

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

suitcase6628<$100

North Florida Ospreys

Invested

$13.8

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$2.4

Record

64%

628-348 (976)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

The Citadel Bulldogs

Invested

$23.5

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$16.25

Record

56%

760-609 (1369)

Pan9X<$100

North Florida Ospreys

Invested

$3.31

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.93

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

smithagent<$100

North Florida Ospreys

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.62

PnL

+$0.24

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

Research grade

AvoidNorth Florida Ospreys at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

North Florida Ospreys

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Florida Ospreys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.