Charleston Southern Buccaneers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons: O/U 157.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$1.8K
$419.68
49.9¢ → 51¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 49¢ | $569.55 | $922.4 | +$352.84 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Overavg 51¢ | $556.66 | $491.17 | -$65.49 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 48.3¢ | $96.5 | $167.32 | +$76.58 | 51% 300-292 (592) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 49.4¢ | $78.73 | $141.73 | +$63 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
SU suitcase6628 | Underavg 55¢ | $126.5 | $117.3 | -$9.2 | 64% 175-97 (272) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $4.45 | +$1.95 | 26% 181-519 (700) |
Invested
$569.55
Value
$922.4
PnL
+$352.84
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$556.66
Value
$491.17
PnL
-$65.49
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
VeryLucky888Invested
$96.5
Value
$167.32
PnL
+$76.58
Record
51%
300-292 (592)
Invested
$78.73
Value
$141.73
PnL
+$63
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$126.5
Value
$117.3
PnL
-$9.2
Record
64%
175-97 (272)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$4.45
PnL
+$1.95
Record
26%
181-519 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.