Chicago State Cougars vs. California Baptist Lancers

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold California Baptist Lancers (50%) · California Baptist Lancers at 87¢ · $132 held · ends Nov 12

Chicago State Cougars13¢California Baptist Lancers87¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

California Baptist Lancers

Consensus Traders

California Baptist Lancers 50%

Total Value

$131.62

Combined PnL

$6.85

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 87¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCalifornia Baptist Lancers at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

California Baptist Lancers

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chicago State Cougars13%

California Baptist Lancers87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

California Baptist Lancers3 traders

Total Value$108.67

Total Shares124

Combined PnL-$0.8

Chicago State Cougars3 traders

Total Value$22.95

Total Shares128

Combined PnL+$7.65

California Baptist Lancers — 50%Chicago State Cougars — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on California Baptist Lancers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChicago State Cougars 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000California Baptist Lancers 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	California Baptist Lancersavg 88¢	$94.67	$93.88	-$0.8	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Chicago State Cougarsavg 12¢	$8.76	$13.14	+$4.38	18% 49-220 (269)
PA Pan9X<$100	California Baptist Lancersavg 87¢	$10.44	$10.44	+$0	49% 683-724 (1407)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Chicago State Cougarsavg 12¢	$6.36	$9.54	+$3.18	23% 36-120 (156)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	California Baptist Lancersavg 87¢	$4.35	$4.35	+$0	33% 317-631 (948)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Chicago State Cougarsavg 12¢	$0.18	$0.27	+$0.09	38% 156-251 (407)

HomeRunHazard<$100

California Baptist Lancers

Invested

$94.67

Value

$93.88

PnL

-$0.8

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Chicago State Cougars

Invested

$8.76

Value

$13.14

PnL

+$4.38

Record

18%

49-220 (269)

Pan9X<$100

California Baptist Lancers

Invested

$10.44

Value

$10.44

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

683-724 (1407)

OddstormCTR<$100

Chicago State Cougars

Invested

$6.36

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$3.18

Record

23%

36-120 (156)

ameisgoat11<$100

California Baptist Lancers

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Chicago State Cougars

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.09

Record

38%

156-251 (407)

Research grade

AvoidCalifornia Baptist Lancers at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

California Baptist Lancers

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on California Baptist Lancers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChicago State Cougars 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000California Baptist Lancers 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that California Baptist Lancers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.