Spread: Charleston Cougars (-1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Charleston Cougars (33%) · Charleston Cougars at 51¢ · $259 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Charleston Cougars
6
Charleston Cougars 33%
$258.73
$6.99
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCharleston Cougars at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-47 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on Charleston Cougars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Charleston Cougarsavg 50¢ | $137.5 | $137.5 | +$0 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Temple Owlsavg 49¢ | $119.09 | $103.52 | +$2.43 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
 VeryLucky888 | Charleston Cougarsavg 49¢ | $136.51 | $7.09 | +$4.46 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Temple Owlsavg 48¢ | $4.57 | $4.67 | +$0.1 | 18% 49-220 (269) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Temple Owlsavg 50¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Temple Owlsavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.45 | +$0 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$137.5
Value
$137.5
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$119.09
Value
$103.52
PnL
+$2.43
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
VeryLucky888Invested
$136.51
Value
$7.09
PnL
+$4.46
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$4.57
Value
$4.67
PnL
+$0.1
Record
18%
49-220 (269)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.