Canisius Golden Griffins vs. Buffalo Bulls

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo Bulls (57%) · Buffalo Bulls at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Canisius Golden Griffins2¢Buffalo Bulls98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Buffalo Bulls

Consensus Traders

Buffalo Bulls 57%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$1.92

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 97.9¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBuffalo Bulls at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo Bulls

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Canisius Golden Griffins2%

Buffalo Bulls98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buffalo Bulls8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,295

Combined PnL+$6.09

Canisius Golden Griffins6 traders

Total Value$116.25

Total Shares977

Combined PnL-$8.01

Buffalo Bulls — 57%Canisius Golden Griffins — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBuffalo Bulls 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Canisius Golden Griffins 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Buffalo Bullsavg 95¢	$332.5	$337.75	+$5.25	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
0xheavy888	Buffalo Bullsavg 90¢	$321.3	$321.3	+$0	56% 710-561 (1271)
RN1	Buffalo Bullsavg 96¢	$251.62	$247.5	-$4.13	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
TH thirdt1me	Buffalo Bullsavg 95¢	$190	$193	+$3	47% 387-434 (821)
PA Pan9X<$100	Buffalo Bullsavg 94.6¢	$58.98	$60.18	+$1.2	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Canisius Golden Griffinsavg 9¢	$48.51	$51.9	+$3.39	56% 3959-3128 (7087)
38 38791873984189<$100	Buffalo Bullsavg 95¢	$48.45	$49.21	+$0.76	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Canisius Golden Griffinsavg 10¢	$30.8	$30.8	+$0	44% 360-455 (815)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100	Canisius Golden Griffinsavg 15.9¢	$30.97	$19.48	-$11.49	48% 553-589 (1142)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Buffalo Bullsavg 90¢	$13.5	$13.5	+$0	43% 878-1159 (2037)
QW qWOprt7CTR<$100	Canisius Golden Griffinsavg 10¢	$10	$10	+$0	9% 9-88 (97)
SE sentrio<$100	Buffalo Bullsavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.5	+$0	41% 1228-1765 (2993)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Canisius Golden Griffinsavg 9.9¢	$2.79	$2.81	+$0.02	46% 1257-1451 (2708)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Canisius Golden Griffinsavg 18¢	$1.19	$1.25	+$0.07	49% 2930-3029 (5959)

cigarettes

Buffalo Bulls

Invested

$332.5

Value

$337.75

PnL

+$5.25

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

0xheavy888

Buffalo Bulls

Invested

$321.3

Value

$321.3

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

710-561 (1271)

RN1

Buffalo Bulls

Invested

$251.62

Value

$247.5

PnL

-$4.13

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

thirdt1me

Buffalo Bulls

Invested

$190

Value

$193

PnL

+$3

Record

47%

387-434 (821)

Pan9X<$100

Buffalo Bulls

Invested

$58.98

Value

$60.18

PnL

+$1.2

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Canisius Golden Griffins

Invested

$48.51

Value

$51.9

PnL

+$3.39

Record

56%

3959-3128 (7087)

38791873984189<$100

Buffalo Bulls

Invested

$48.45

Value

$49.21

PnL

+$0.76

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Canisius Golden Griffins

Invested

$30.8

Value

$30.8

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

360-455 (815)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100

Canisius Golden Griffins

Invested

$30.97

Value

$19.48

PnL

-$11.49

Record

48%

553-589 (1142)

ameisgoat11<$100

Buffalo Bulls

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

878-1159 (2037)

qWOprt7CTR<$100

Canisius Golden Griffins

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

9-88 (97)

sentrio<$100

Buffalo Bulls

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1228-1765 (2993)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Canisius Golden Griffins

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

1257-1451 (2708)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Canisius Golden Griffins

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

Research grade

AvoidBuffalo Bulls at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo Bulls

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBuffalo Bulls 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Canisius Golden Griffins 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buffalo Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.