Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Brown Bears, while the market favors Canisius Golden Griffins (57%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Canisius Golden Griffins vs. Brown Bears
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Brown Bears (44%) · Brown Bears at 43¢ · $356 held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Brown Bears
9
Brown Bears 44%
$356.48
-$1.92
88.2¢ → 42.5¢
-52% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidBrown Bears at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Canisius Golden Griffins 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888CTR | Brown Bearsavg 88¢ | $204.16 | $204.16 | -$0 | 56% 312-248 (560) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Brown Bearsavg 88.4¢ | $91.65 | $91.28 | -$0.37 | 48% 2366-2611 (4977) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Brown Bearsavg 88.7¢ | $33.69 | $33.44 | -$0.25 | 49% 1100-1151 (2251) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Canisius Golden Griffinsavg 56¢ | $16.8 | $16.05 | -$0.75 | 34% 349-676 (1025) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Brown Bearsavg 88¢ | $4.4 | $4.4 | -$0 | 38% 509-821 (1330) |
SU suitcase6628<$100 | Canisius Golden Griffinsavg 13¢ | $4.2 | $3.88 | -$0.32 | 63% 392-229 (621) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Canisius Golden Griffinsavg 13¢ | $1.56 | $1.44 | -$0.12 | 43% 400-536 (936) |
 dips.<$100 | Canisius Golden Griffinsavg 13¢ | $1.04 | $0.96 | -$0.08 | 46% 593-709 (1302) |
 RN1<$100 | Canisius Golden Griffinsavg 31¢ | $0.9 | $0.87 | -$0.03 | 56% 4589-3558 (8147) |
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$204.16
Value
$204.16
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
312-248 (560)
Invested
$91.65
Value
$91.28
PnL
-$0.37
Record
48%
2366-2611 (4977)
Invested
$33.69
Value
$33.44
PnL
-$0.25
Record
49%
1100-1151 (2251)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$16.05
PnL
-$0.75
Record
34%
349-676 (1025)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
509-821 (1330)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$3.88
PnL
-$0.32
Record
63%
392-229 (621)
Invested
$1.56
Value
$1.44
PnL
-$0.12
Record
43%
400-536 (936)
dips.<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$0.08
Record
46%
593-709 (1302)
RN1<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.87
PnL
-$0.03
Record
56%
4589-3558 (8147)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xheavy888
CTRBrown Bears — $204.16
38791873984189
CTRBrown Bears — $91.28
Pan9X
CTRBrown Bears — $33.44
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Canisius Golden Griffins — $16.05
ameisgoat11
CTRBrown Bears — $4.4
suitcase6628
Canisius Golden Griffins — $3.88
smithagent
Canisius Golden Griffins — $1.44
dips.
Canisius Golden Griffins — $0.96
RN1
Canisius Golden Griffins — $0.87