Campbell Fighting Camels vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers: O/U 145.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 52¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
$9.2K
$23.52
51.8¢ → 52¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51.8¢ | $5.6K | $5.6K | +$22.86 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Underavg 52¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$0.05 | 9% 24-239 (263) |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0 | 14% 77-472 (549) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 46.7¢ | $23.25 | $23.91 | +$0.66 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.4 | -$0.05 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$5,575.35
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$22.86
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$2,230.96
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$0.05
Record
9%
24-239 (263)
Invested
$1,355
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
14%
77-472 (549)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$23.25
Value
$23.91
PnL
+$0.66
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.05
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.