Bradley Braves vs. Davidson Wildcats: O/U 136.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.4K
$8.39
43.6¢ → 70.5¢
+62% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 71%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 43¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$15.32 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 47¢ | $158.83 | $152.12 | -$6.71 | 55% 119-96 (215) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $27.03 | $24.65 | -$2.39 | 8% 37-422 (459) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $48.57 | $17.99 | +$2.11 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.25 | +$0.05 | 26% 180-518 (698) |
Invested
$1,184.56
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$15.32
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
0xheavy888Invested
$158.83
Value
$152.12
PnL
-$6.71
Record
55%
119-96 (215)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$24.65
PnL
-$2.39
Record
8%
37-422 (459)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$48.57
Value
$17.99
PnL
+$2.11
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.25
PnL
+$0.05
Record
26%
180-518 (698)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.