Bradley Braves vs. Davidson Wildcats

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Davidson Wildcats (50%) · Davidson Wildcats at 94¢ · $141 held · ended Nov 11

Bradley Braves7¢Davidson Wildcats93¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Davidson Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Davidson Wildcats 50%

Total Value

$141.35

Combined PnL

-$9.26

Research grade

AvoidDavidson Wildcats at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Davidson Wildcats

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bradley Braves7%

Davidson Wildcats94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Davidson Wildcats4 traders

Total Value$103.29

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$0.98

Bradley Braves4 traders

Total Value$38.05

Total Shares400

Combined PnL-$10.24

Davidson Wildcats — 50%Bradley Braves — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Davidson Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBradley Braves 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedDavidson Wildcats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Davidson Wildcats 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 89.8¢	$51.66	$54.2	+$2.53	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
38 38791873984189<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 90.9¢	$35.47	$34.32	-$1.15	48% 947-1017 (1964)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 10.5¢	$19.03	$11.83	-$7.2	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
PA Pan9X<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 82¢	$11.08	$10.37	-$0.71	49% 443-470 (913)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 16¢	$12.38	$9.29	-$3.1	28% 284-730 (1014)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 6¢	$4.26	$8.52	+$4.26	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 18¢	$12.62	$8.41	-$4.21	28% 274-715 (989)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Davidson Wildcatsavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.4	+$0.3	26% 180-518 (698)

RN1<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$51.66

Value

$54.2

PnL

+$2.53

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

38791873984189<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$35.47

Value

$34.32

PnL

-$1.15

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$19.03

Value

$11.83

PnL

-$7.2

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Pan9X<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$11.08

Value

$10.37

PnL

-$0.71

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$12.38

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$3.1

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$4.26

Value

$8.52

PnL

+$4.26

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$12.62

Value

$8.41

PnL

-$4.21

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

ameisgoat11<$100

Davidson Wildcats

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.3

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

Research grade

AvoidDavidson Wildcats at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Davidson Wildcats

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Davidson Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBradley Braves 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedDavidson Wildcats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Davidson Wildcats 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Davidson Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.