Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bethune-Cookman Wildcats, while the market favors San Diego State Aztecs (88%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs. San Diego State Aztecs

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bethune-Cookman Wildcats (100%) · Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at 12¢ · $263 held · ended Nov 11

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats12¢San Diego State Aztecs88¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 100%

Total Value

$262.97

Combined PnL

-$84.68

Smart Money Entry

7.7¢ → 12.4¢

+60% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidBethune-Cookman Wildcats at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego State Aztecs 88%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats12%

San Diego State Aztecs88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats9 traders

Total Value$262.97

Total Shares4,356

Combined PnL-$84.68

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Bethune-Cookman Wildcatsavg 4¢	$109.48	$109.48	+$0	45% 267-323 (590)
RN1CTR<$100	Bethune-Cookman Wildcatsavg 13.1¢	$75.15	$43.06	-$32.09	57% 4041-3054 (7095)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Bethune-Cookman Wildcatsavg 20¢	$87.06	$34.43	-$52.63	53% 5758-5142 (10900)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Bethune-Cookman Wildcatsavg 11.6¢	$23.8	$24.58	+$0.78	53% 1833-1635 (3468)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bethune-Cookman Wildcatsavg 6.2¢	$12.9	$21.3	+$8.4	48% 1401-1536 (2937)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bethune-Cookman Wildcatsavg 16.1¢	$58.16	$14.45	-$10.9	49% 678-717 (1395)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Bethune-Cookman Wildcatsavg 21.3¢	$10.65	$11.48	+$0.82	43% 120-161 (281)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Bethune-Cookman Wildcatsavg 3¢	$2.94	$3.92	+$0.98	18% 48-217 (265)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Bethune-Cookman Wildcatsavg 15¢	$0.31	$0.27	-$0.04	64% 270-152 (422)

SnakeBallCTR

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Invested

$109.48

Value

$109.48

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

267-323 (590)

RN1CTR<$100

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Invested

$75.15

Value

$43.06

PnL

-$32.09

Record

57%

4041-3054 (7095)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Invested

$87.06

Value

$34.43

PnL

-$52.63

Record

53%

5758-5142 (10900)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Invested

$23.8

Value

$24.58

PnL

+$0.78

Record

53%

1833-1635 (3468)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Invested

$12.9

Value

$21.3

PnL

+$8.4

Record

48%

1401-1536 (2937)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Invested

$58.16

Value

$14.45

PnL

-$10.9

Record

49%

678-717 (1395)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Invested

$10.65

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$0.82

Record

43%

120-161 (281)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Invested

$2.94

Value

$3.92

PnL

+$0.98

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.04

Record

64%

270-152 (422)

Research grade

AvoidBethune-Cookman Wildcats at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego State Aztecs 88%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bethune-Cookman Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.0%

12.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$615.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

715.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.