Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. UCLA Bruins: O/U 156.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 50¢ · $146 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$146.02
$2.59
47.2¢ → 50¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OD Oddstorm | Overavg 47.1¢ | $110.55 | $112.71 | +$2.16 | 23% 36-124 (160) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 49.4¢ | $14.84 | $15.32 | +$0.48 | 57% 3234-2442 (5676) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $9.39 | $9.59 | +$0.2 | 12% 17-129 (146) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $4.8 | -$0.3 | 34% 332-644 (976) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.55 | +$0.05 | — |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $1.05 | $1.05 | -$0 | 51% 505-476 (981) |
Invested
$110.55
Value
$112.71
PnL
+$2.16
Record
23%
36-124 (160)
Invested
$14.84
Value
$15.32
PnL
+$0.48
Record
57%
3234-2442 (5676)
Invested
$9.39
Value
$9.59
PnL
+$0.2
Record
12%
17-129 (146)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.3
Record
34%
332-644 (976)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.05
Record
—
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
505-476 (981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.