Army Black Knights vs. New Haven Chargers: O/U 133.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 54¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
$163.07
$0.9
53.6¢ → 54¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 53.5¢ | $103.95 | $104.84 | +$0.89 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $46 | $46 | +$0 | 49% 231-238 (469) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $5.4 | $5.3 | -$0.1 | 48% 840-912 (1752) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $4.53 | $4.63 | +$0.1 | 55% 106-85 (191) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.3 | +$0 | 24% 155-504 (659) |
Invested
$103.95
Value
$104.84
PnL
+$0.89
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$46
Value
$46
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
231-238 (469)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
48%
840-912 (1752)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.53
Value
$4.63
PnL
+$0.1
Record
55%
106-85 (191)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
155-504 (659)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.