Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Air Force Falcons, while the market favors Pacific Tigers (73%). 5 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Air Force Falcons vs. Pacific Tigers
5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Air Force Falcons (31%) · Air Force Falcons at 27¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Air Force Falcons
16
Air Force Falcons 31%
$10.3K
$-5.4K
39.6¢ → 27¢
-32% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidAir Force Falcons at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 16 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Pacific Tigers 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
31% of non-arb traders are on Air Force Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA SadSquid54333CTR | Air Force Falconsavg 45.1¢ | $7.7K | $2.7K | $-5.0K | 57% 173-132 (305) |
SH shiifoo | Pacific Tigersavg 67.1¢ | $3.1K | $2.4K | +$320.35 | 61% 1409-891 (2300) |
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Air Force Falconsavg 45.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.2K | -$618.05 | 52% 2623-2458 (5081) |
FO forecastication4 | Pacific Tigersavg 84¢ | $1.4K | $1.0K | -$400.79 | 32% 146-304 (450) |
 CosmicCedarCTR | Air Force Falconsavg 15.6¢ | $856.24 | $706.68 | +$27.44 | 32% 45-96 (141) |
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186 | Pacific Tigersavg 58.6¢ | $390.23 | $555.88 | +$165.65 | 49% 516-536 (1052) |
38 38791873984189 | Pacific Tigersavg 77.5¢ | $443.81 | $417.87 | -$25.93 | 48% 2922-3218 (6140) |
FO Forecastication2 | Pacific Tigersavg 79¢ | $348.39 | $321.93 | -$26.46 | 45% 224-272 (496) |
BA Bayupati | Pacific Tigersavg 63.2¢ | $194.62 | $258.53 | +$63.91 | 16% 27-140 (167) |
BO BoomLaLa | Pacific Tigersavg 62.2¢ | $221.54 | $213.6 | -$7.94 | 34% 144-285 (429) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Pacific Tigersavg 50¢ | $220 | $132 | -$9.5 | 73% 119-43 (162) |
RO rocky42019 | Pacific Tigersavg 52¢ | $79.55 | $128.51 | +$48.96 | 38% 17-28 (45) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Air Force Falconsavg 21¢ | $116.55 | $88.8 | -$27.75 | 13% 76-495 (571) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Pacific Tigersavg 52.2¢ | $48.6 | $55.86 | +$7.26 | 43% 915-1235 (2150) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Pacific Tigersavg 52.5¢ | $26.25 | $42 | +$15.75 | 39% 1083-1659 (2742) |
 unknowngamblerCTR | Air Force Falconsavg 30¢ | $351.44 | $16.86 | +$51.7 | — 3-3 (6) |
Invested
$7,732.51
Value
$2.7K
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
57%
173-132 (305)
Invested
$3,092.6
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$320.35
Record
61%
1409-891 (2300)
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$1,845.14
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$618.05
Record
52%
2623-2458 (5081)
Invested
$1,405.34
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$400.79
Record
32%
146-304 (450)
CosmicCedarCTRInvested
$856.24
Value
$706.68
PnL
+$27.44
Record
32%
45-96 (141)
Invested
$390.23
Value
$555.88
PnL
+$165.65
Record
49%
516-536 (1052)
Invested
$443.81
Value
$417.87
PnL
-$25.93
Record
48%
2922-3218 (6140)
Invested
$348.39
Value
$321.93
PnL
-$26.46
Record
45%
224-272 (496)
Invested
$194.62
Value
$258.53
PnL
+$63.91
Record
16%
27-140 (167)
Invested
$221.54
Value
$213.6
PnL
-$7.94
Record
34%
144-285 (429)
Invested
$220
Value
$132
PnL
-$9.5
Record
73%
119-43 (162)
Invested
$79.55
Value
$128.51
PnL
+$48.96
Record
38%
17-28 (45)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$116.55
Value
$88.8
PnL
-$27.75
Record
13%
76-495 (571)
Invested
$48.6
Value
$55.86
PnL
+$7.26
Record
43%
915-1235 (2150)
Invested
$26.25
Value
$42
PnL
+$15.75
Record
39%
1083-1659 (2742)
unknowngamblerCTRInvested
$351.44
Value
$16.86
PnL
+$51.7
Record
—
3-3 (6)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
SadSquid54333
CTRAir Force Falcons — $2.7K
shiifoo
Pacific Tigers — $2.4K
CUTJALENHURTS
CTRAir Force Falcons — $1.2K
forecastication4
Pacific Tigers — $1.0K
CosmicCedar
CTRAir Force Falcons — $706.68
0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186
Pacific Tigers — $555.88
38791873984189
Pacific Tigers — $417.87
Forecastication2
Pacific Tigers — $321.93
Bayupati
Pacific Tigers — $258.53
BoomLaLa
Pacific Tigers — $213.6