Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$3.5K
$1.6K
50.7¢ → 93.3¢
+84% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR tradexplorer | Noavg 44¢ | $1.3K | $2.8K | +$1.5K | 60% 289-194 (483) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 83.9¢ | $651.53 | $635.04 | -$12.46 | 21% 305-1161 (1466) |
TT tttt123<$100 | Noavg 43.9¢ | $43.7 | $93.3 | +$49.6 | 72% 1532-585 (2117) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $0.15 | $1.67 | +$1.52 | 56% 15296-11841 (27137) |
Invested
$1,320.62
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
60%
289-194 (483)
IstarothInvested
$651.53
Value
$635.04
PnL
-$12.46
Record
21%
305-1161 (1466)
Invested
$43.7
Value
$93.3
PnL
+$49.6
Record
72%
1532-585 (2117)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
$1.67
PnL
+$1.52
Record
56%
15296-11841 (27137)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.