SV Werder Bremen vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 17%
$7.7K
-$115.89
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 95.1¢ | $7.1K | $7.3K | +$266.81 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | Overavg 28¢ | $504 | $252 | -$252 | 54% 4886-4115 (9001) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 4.5¢ | $118.53 | $34.24 | -$84.29 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $58.24 | $29.12 | -$29.12 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.9¢ | $6.58 | $4.5 | -$2.08 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 6.3¢ | $19.18 | $3.97 | -$15.21 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
Invested
$7,079.64
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$266.81
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$504
Value
$252
PnL
-$252
Record
54%
4886-4115 (9001)
Invested
$118.53
Value
$34.24
PnL
-$84.29
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$58.24
Value
$29.12
PnL
-$29.12
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$6.58
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$2.08
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$19.18
Value
$3.97
PnL
-$15.21
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.