SV Werder Bremen vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 94¢ · $40K held · ended Oct 31

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

Total Value

$40.2K

Combined PnL

$7.2K

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 94¢

+75% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$37.2K

Total Shares40,954

Combined PnL+$15.1K

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares22,062

Combined PnL$-7.9K

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 50¢	$24.0K	$21.2K	+$9.2K	49% 19169-19561 (38730)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 62.8¢	$6.4K	$9.6K	+$3.2K	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 52.8¢	$3.2K	$5.6K	+$2.4K	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 50¢	$7.5K	$2.4K	$-5.1K	47% 2510-2807 (5317)
RN1	Underavg 55.1¢	$424.1	$725.04	+$300.93	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
us391CTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$2.1K	$267.72	$-1.9K	51% 1683-1647 (3330)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 50¢	$550	$176	-$374	54% 4886-4115 (9001)
MA Marios15tCTR	Overavg 47¢	$548.35	$69.93	-$478.42	48% 88-96 (184)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 52.1¢	$29.21	$52.74	+$23.54	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$50.62	$38.58	-$12.04	74% 6674-2397 (9071)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$164.56	$21.24	-$143.32	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.85	$5.25	+$2.4	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$4.3	+$0.18	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$23,967.8

Value

$21.2K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

49%

19169-19561 (38730)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$6,416.45

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,204.25

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$7,454

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

47%

2510-2807 (5317)

RN1

Under

Invested

$424.1

Value

$725.04

PnL

+$300.93

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

us391CTR

Over

Invested

$2,134.72

Value

$267.72

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

51%

1683-1647 (3330)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$550

Value

$176

PnL

-$374

Record

54%

4886-4115 (9001)

Marios15tCTR

Over

Invested

$548.35

Value

$69.93

PnL

-$478.42

Record

48%

88-96 (184)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$29.21

Value

$52.74

PnL

+$23.54

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.62

Value

$38.58

PnL

-$12.04

Record

74%

6674-2397 (9071)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$164.56

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$143.32

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$2.4

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.