SV Werder Bremen vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 67¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 31

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

$20.83

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 66.5¢

+27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares8,617

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares8,651

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 57.8¢	$3.9K	$4.8K	+$827.84	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 50.6¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$122.42	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.6¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$639.03
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.8¢	$1.4K	$896.81	-$516.61
RN1CTR	Overavg 40.3¢	$2.3K	$1.7K	-$585.05	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Underavg 59.8¢	$945.99	$1.1K	+$200.7	62% 13708-8572 (22280)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.8¢	$549.75	$611.39	+$61.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.8¢	$396.23	$535.3	+$139.06
VeryLucky888	Underavg 29.7¢	$444.99	$1.0K	+$604.99	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
MR MrBentlyCTR	Overavg 62.5¢	$937.5	$450	-$487.5	53% 543-485 (1028)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Overavg 69¢	$756.66	$328.98	-$427.68	65% 1708-928 (2636)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 46¢	$91.2	$138.78	+$51.55	48% 927-999 (1926)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 36.1¢	$116.79	$118.46	+$1.67	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.2¢	$57.69	$69.37	+$11.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.1¢	$59.1	$49.09	-$10.01
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$67.5	$75	+$7.5	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 30¢	$26.4	$61.6	+$35.2	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 35.6¢	$42.14	$35.47	-$6.66	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 60¢	$9.38	$9.73	+$0.34	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 29.5¢	$2.95	$7	+$0.3	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,939.23

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$827.84

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,446.96

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$122.42

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

Both legs:

Under$2,033.5550.6¢+$639.03

Over$1,413.4152.8¢-$516.61

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,290.76

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$585.05

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Under

Invested

$945.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$200.7

Record

62%

13708-8572 (22280)

Both legs:

Under$549.7559.8¢+$61.63

Over$396.2324.8¢+$139.06

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$444.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$604.99

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

MrBentlyCTR

Over

Invested

$937.5

Value

$450

PnL

-$487.5

Record

53%

543-485 (1028)

darkumbreon88CTR

Over

Invested

$756.66

Value

$328.98

PnL

-$427.68

Record

65%

1708-928 (2636)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$91.2

Value

$138.78

PnL

+$51.55

Record

48%

927-999 (1926)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$116.79

Value

$118.46

PnL

+$1.67

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Both legs:

Under$57.6958.2¢+$11.68

Over$59.136.1¢-$10.01

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.5

Value

$75

PnL

+$7.5

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$26.4

Value

$61.6

PnL

+$35.2

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.14

Value

$35.47

PnL

-$6.66

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$9.38

Value

$9.73

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.95

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.