SV Werder Bremen vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$305.96

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 99.5¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,069

Combined PnL-$812.51

Under6 traders

Total Value$725.3

Total Shares2,060

Combined PnL+$506.55

Over — 54%Under — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 70.8¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$348.55	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
└ Over leg	Overavg 70.8¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$175.76
└ Under leg	Underavg 21.7¢	$856.51	$1.4K	+$524.31
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 96.2¢	$2.4K	$1.6K	-$774.85	82% 2476-561 (3037)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 35.7¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$244.21	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.7¢	$934.82	$917.15	-$17.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 96.9¢	$687.73	$461.19	-$226.54
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 14.4¢	$178.32	$424.53	+$246.21	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 61¢	$178.33	$262.97	+$84.64	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
└ Over leg	Overavg 61¢	$155.55	$165.75	+$10.2
└ Under leg	Underavg 8.2¢	$22.78	$97.22	+$74.44
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 41¢	$193.55	$186.67	-$6.89	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41¢	$120.47	$102.76	-$17.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.6¢	$73.09	$83.9	+$10.82
N. n.maga	Overavg 95.3¢	$156.76	$106.91	-$49.84	64% 571-328 (899)
CoinTrick	Overavg 99.9¢	$107.02	$106.59	-$0.43	97% 3262-86 (3348)
bernardi22CTR	Underavg 3.4¢	$10.38	$106.13	+$95.75	56% 1284-998 (2282)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 5.4¢	$16.5	$105.98	+$89.49	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
FO foooool	Overavg 53¢	$91.31	$105.62	+$14.32	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 68¢	$92.48	$88.4	-$4.08	74% 1592-569 (2161)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$6.75	$78.75	+$72	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 55¢	$13.79	$16.3	+$2.51	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$2.98	$8.68	+$3.35	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 66¢	$8.66	$8.53	-$0.13	51% 3416-3341 (6757)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$1.47	$1.23	-$0.25	53% 4646-4187 (8833)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,016.55

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$348.55

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

Both legs:

Over$2,160.0470.8¢-$175.76

Under$856.5121.7¢+$524.31

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$2,389.61

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$774.85

Record

82%

2476-561 (3037)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,622.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$244.21

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

Both legs:

Under$934.8235.7¢-$17.67

Over$687.7396.9¢-$226.54

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$178.32

Value

$424.53

PnL

+$246.21

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$178.33

Value

$262.97

PnL

+$84.64

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

Both legs:

Over$155.5561¢+$10.2

Under$22.788.2¢+$74.44

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$193.55

Value

$186.67

PnL

-$6.89

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

Both legs:

Under$120.4741¢-$17.71

Over$73.0956.6¢+$10.82

n.maga

Over

Invested

$156.76

Value

$106.91

PnL

-$49.84

Record

64%

571-328 (899)

CoinTrick

Over

Invested

$107.02

Value

$106.59

PnL

-$0.43

Record

97%

3262-86 (3348)

bernardi22CTR

Under

Invested

$10.38

Value

$106.13

PnL

+$95.75

Record

56%

1284-998 (2282)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$16.5

Value

$105.98

PnL

+$89.49

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

foooool

Over

Invested

$91.31

Value

$105.62

PnL

+$14.32

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$92.48

Value

$88.4

PnL

-$4.08

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.75

Value

$78.75

PnL

+$72

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$13.79

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$2.51

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.98

Value

$8.68

PnL

+$3.35

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

LaarsY<$100

Over

Invested

$8.66

Value

$8.53

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

3416-3341 (6757)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.