Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-31?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 64¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 31

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

-$119.85

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 63.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares17,031

Combined PnL-$270.4

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares10,512

Combined PnL+$150.56

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 63.9¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$39.29	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 67¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$298.51	64% 293-165 (458)
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$50	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$46.37	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$383.07	$393.3	+$10.23	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$335.39	$376.04	+$40.65	54% 4884-4115 (8999)
CA Cannae	Noavg 66¢	$283.83	$270.93	-$12.9	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 63¢	$182.11	$182.11	+$1.45	53% 5632-4970 (10602)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 33.5¢	$112.59	$115.92	+$3.33	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 64¢	$31.74	$32.01	+$0.27	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.9	-$0.03	48% 2393-2622 (5015)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$6,840.09

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$39.29

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$298.51

Record

64%

293-165 (458)

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,186.02

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$50

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,020.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$46.37

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$383.07

Value

$393.3

PnL

+$10.23

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Yes

Invested

$335.39

Value

$376.04

PnL

+$40.65

Record

54%

4884-4115 (8999)

Cannae

Invested

$283.83

Value

$270.93

PnL

-$12.9

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$182.11

Value

$182.11

PnL

+$1.45

Record

53%

5632-4970 (10602)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$112.59

Value

$115.92

PnL

+$3.33

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$31.74

Value

$32.01

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.