Will SV Werder Bremen vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

-$112.16

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 98.5¢

+32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares8,269

Combined PnL+$8.62

Yes5 traders

Total Value$394.28

Total Shares1,905

Combined PnL-$120.79

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 74¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$53.28	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$27.48
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$25.81
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 74.1¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$28.07	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$40.12	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
oieshfn345	Noavg 77.5¢	$454.31	$468.73	+$14.42	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 28.2¢	$387.16	$267.83	-$119.33	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$120	$120	+$0	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
AR ARocky33	Noavg 91.8¢	$111.42	$97.74	-$13.68	76% 4051-1277 (5328)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 72¢	$84.64	$80.47	-$4.17	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$3.79	$3.79	+$0	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$2.7	$2.5	-$0.2	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.42	$0.16	-$1.26	50% 33398-32968 (66366)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$5,357.04

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$53.28

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

Both legs:

No$4,066.7174¢+$27.48

Yes$1,290.3225¢+$25.81

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$3,564.89

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$28.07

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,979.04

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$40.12

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

oieshfn345

Invested

$454.31

Value

$468.73

PnL

+$14.42

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$387.16

Value

$267.83

PnL

-$119.33

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$120

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

ARocky33

Invested

$111.42

Value

$97.74

PnL

-$13.68

Record

76%

4051-1277 (5328)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$84.64

Value

$80.47

PnL

-$4.17

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$3.79

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.26

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.