SV Werder Bremen vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 78¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$895.46
37.2¢ → 78¢
+109% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 37.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.9K | +$931.02 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $754.67 | $570.12 | -$184.55 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $656.59 | $448.13 | -$208.46 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.5¢ | $98.08 | $121.99 | +$23.91 | |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yesavg 70¢ | $216.99 | $187.54 | -$29.45 | 74% 6673-2396 (9069) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 70.4¢ | $182.03 | $179.73 | -$2.29 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $27.35 | $28.75 | +$1.39 | 53% 15955-14130 (30085) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $18.89 | $19.07 | +$0.18 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 53.8¢ | $18.29 | $12.57 | -$5.71 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $5.33 | $5.66 | +$0.33 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
Invested
$1,001.06
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$931.02
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$754.67
Value
$570.12
PnL
-$184.55
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Both legs:
Invested
$216.99
Value
$187.54
PnL
-$29.45
Record
74%
6673-2396 (9069)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$182.03
Value
$179.73
PnL
-$2.29
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$27.35
Value
$28.75
PnL
+$1.39
Record
53%
15955-14130 (30085)
RN1<$100Invested
$18.89
Value
$19.07
PnL
+$0.18
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
Invested
$18.29
Value
$12.57
PnL
-$5.71
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.33
Value
$5.66
PnL
+$0.33
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.