Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-11-01?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 61¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1

Yes61¢No39¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$4.75

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 60.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares9,822

Combined PnL+$132.75

No3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares8,045

Combined PnL-$128

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 57.7¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$43.16	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 57.8¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$92.13	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
AN Anon455CTR	Noavg 42¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$113.8	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 48.3¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$127.39	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.3¢	$612.35	$779.72	+$167.37
└ No leg	Noavg 41.7¢	$515.26	$475.28	-$39.98
RN1CTR	Noavg 42¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$14.39	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 56.8¢	$198.02	$195.19	-$2.83	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 56¢	$137.82	$137.82	+$0	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yesavg 57.9¢	$119.6	$118.13	-$1.47	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.9¢	$62.2	$66.65	+$4.45
└ No leg	Noavg 42.4¢	$57.4	$51.48	-$5.92
HRTradingARB<$100	Noavg 44.1¢	$57.94	$55.28	-$2.65	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.1¢	$31.99	$28.66	-$3.33
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59¢	$25.95	$26.63	+$0.68
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$17.7	$18.15	+$0.45	51% 1529-1481 (3010)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$16.26	$16.46	+$0.2	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$9.38	$9.21	-$0.16	50% 11182-10991 (22173)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$3,230.38

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$43.16

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$2,208.38

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$92.13

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$2,363

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$113.8

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,127.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$127.39

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Both legs:

Yes$612.3548.3¢+$167.37

No$515.2641.7¢-$39.98

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,261.84

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$14.39

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$198.02

Value

$195.19

PnL

-$2.83

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$137.82

Value

$137.82

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$119.6

Value

$118.13

PnL

-$1.47

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

Both legs:

Yes$62.257.9¢+$4.45

No$57.442.4¢-$5.92

HRTradingARB<$100

Invested

$57.94

Value

$55.28

PnL

-$2.65

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Both legs:

No$31.9944.1¢-$3.33

Yes$25.9559¢+$0.68

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.7

Value

$18.15

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Invested

$16.26

Value

$16.46

PnL

+$0.2

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.38

Value

$9.21

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.