1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares4,928

Combined PnL+$109.22

Under5 traders

Total Value$183.69

Total Shares6,837

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
N. n.maga	Overavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$28.5	64% 580-331 (911)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 95.8¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$80.72	82% 2438-547 (2985)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Underavg 20¢	$127.6	$190.44	+$67.6	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
└ Under leg	Underavg 20¢	$70.26	$137	+$66.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 78.3¢	$57.34	$53.44	+$0.86
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 39.1¢	$2.1K	$104.03	$-2.0K	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
RN1CTR	Underavg 47.1¢	$613.5	$79.37	-$534.13	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$74.97	$0.18	-$74.79	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 4.9¢	$5.38	$0.05	-$5.33	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Underavg 11.9¢	$11.34	$0.05	+$5.29	57% 1048-784 (1832)

n.maga

Over

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$28.5

Record

64%

580-331 (911)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$1,846.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$80.72

Record

82%

2438-547 (2985)

CannaeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$127.6

Value

$190.44

PnL

+$67.6

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Both legs:

Under$70.2620¢+$66.74

Over$57.3478.3¢+$0.86

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$2,064.68

Value

$104.03

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$613.5

Value

$79.37

PnL

-$534.13

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$74.97

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$74.79

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.38

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$5.33

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.34

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$5.29

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.