Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-11-01?

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 86¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 1

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 76%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 85.5¢

+29% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 86%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares12,410

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares15,555

Combined PnL-$75.41

No — 76%Yes — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 62¢	$2.4K	$3.1K	+$759.41	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 22.9¢	$3.6K	$3.0K	-$666.89	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
└ No leg	Noavg 84.2¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$27.48
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.9¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$694.37
OL olpy	Noavg 63.9¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$26.17	73% 416-154 (570)
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR	Yesavg 38¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$65.78	56% 86-68 (154)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$162.36	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
└ No leg	Noavg 80.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$93.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22¢	$662.72	$406.77	-$255.95
AN Anon455	Noavg 85¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$247.53	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 61¢	$992.06	$1.3K	+$341.26	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 62¢	$930	$1.3K	+$352.5	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 82¢	$381.46	$381.46	+$0	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$250	$241.67	-$8.33	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
FO foooool	Noavg 83.3¢	$149.09	$153.05	+$3.95	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$127.97	$127.97	+$0	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
CA Cannae	Noavg 62¢	$87.68	$112.56	+$24.88	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 62¢	$69.44	$91.84	+$22.4	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$56.97	$55.11	-$1.87	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 78¢	$23.4	$24.6	+$1.2	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
RN1<$100	Noavg 81¢	$12.31	$12.67	+$0.7	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 86¢	$5.54	$5.51	-$0.03	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.4¢	$4.06	$2.76	-$1.31	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$2,354.18

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$759.41

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,623.01

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$666.89

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Both legs:

No$1,723.1384.2¢+$27.48

Yes$1,899.8822.9¢-$694.37

olpy

Invested

$2,965.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$26.17

Record

73%

416-154 (570)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,434.2

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$65.78

Record

56%

86-68 (154)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$1,994.96

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$162.36

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

Both legs:

No$1,332.2480.8¢+$93.59

Yes$662.7222¢-$255.95

Anon455

Invested

$1,797.88

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$247.53

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$992.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$341.26

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$930

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$352.5

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$381.46

Value

$381.46

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$241.67

PnL

-$8.33

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

foooool

Invested

$149.09

Value

$153.05

PnL

+$3.95

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.97

Value

$127.97

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Cannae

Invested

$87.68

Value

$112.56

PnL

+$24.88

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$69.44

Value

$91.84

PnL

+$22.4

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$56.97

Value

$55.11

PnL

-$1.87

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$24.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

RN1<$100

Invested

$12.31

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$0.7

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$5.54

Value

$5.51

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.06

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$1.31

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 86%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.