Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (85%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
1. FC Union Berlin leading at halftime?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 15¢ · $3 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
2
No 100%
$2.67
-$268.82
69¢ → 15¢
-78% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $11.42 | $2.48 | -$10.27 | 62% 1191-725 (1916) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 69¢ | $374.99 | $0.19 | -$258.55 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.