Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 75¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$58.11

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 74.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,578

Combined PnL+$28.56

Yes5 traders

Total Value$600.48

Total Shares2,407

Combined PnL+$29.54

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 74.3¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$6.69	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72.1¢	$916.61	$934.43	+$17.82	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 72¢	$472.48	$489.98	+$5	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$359.98	$374.98	+$2.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$135	$115	+$2.5
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$437.35	$464.99	+$27.64	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 76¢	$316.67	$320.84	+$4.17	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$115.24	$117.8	+$2.56	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 74.8¢	$108.77	$108.16	-$0.61	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 74¢	$74	$74.5	+$0.5	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$12.5	$12.75	+$0.25	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$4.76	$3.91	-$0.85	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.08	$1.02	-$0.06	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

Anon455

Invested

$2,745.01

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$6.69

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$916.61

Value

$934.43

PnL

+$17.82

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$472.48

Value

$489.98

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

Both legs:

Invested

$437.35

Value

$464.99

PnL

+$27.64

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$316.67

Value

$320.84

PnL

+$4.17

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$115.24

Value

$117.8

PnL

+$2.56

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$108.77

Value

$108.16

PnL

-$0.61

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$74

Value

$74.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$0.85

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.